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Ohio Basketball Topic
Topic: Shooting the Basketball
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Andrew Ruck
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Posted: 1/18/2017 5:21 PM
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We are not shooting well this year, and with largely the same group. Free throws have been painfully obvious, going from .759 to .656...Ouch. 3 pointers have not been too bad, from .386 down to .376. 2 pointers have plummeted from .523 to .482.

Breaking it down by player, I'll use the "true shooting percentage" which weights FTs, 2 pointers and 3 pointers accordingly and converts them into one percentage:

Dartis down from .700 to .618 - What an amazing freshman season shooting but a pretty massive falloff.
Campbell down from .634 to .615 - His issue is more foul trouble and injuries limiting his impact.
Simmons down from .584 to .460 - Oof.
Block down from .577 to .546
Treg Setty was at .577 and has effectively been replaced by Taylor & Carter who collectively are at about .540
The only bright spot is KK, who has only bumped up from .553 to .577.

What is up with this? Is it dumb luck, got more to bounce our way last year and the opposite this year? Coaching not as effective? Missing Treg's energy? Slower pace? Team chemistry? Honestly, none of those really make sense to me.

These are pretty drastic falloffs, in an environment where 4 times out of 5 a college player's shooting improves year over year. There was great reason for optimism. I'm not saying everything has been a huge disappointment this season, but I think it is fair to say at least the shooting has not gone the way we expected.
Last Edited: 1/19/2017 8:54:40 AM by Andrew Ruck
Jeff McKinney
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Posted: 1/18/2017 5:50 PM
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Just think where we would be at the moment if the defense hadn't improved.

This thing with the offense is hard to fathom or understand.
Alan Swank
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Posted: 1/18/2017 5:53 PM
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Andrew - in this day and age your subject line scared the hell out of me. Sad but true.
Mark Lembright '85
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Posted: 1/18/2017 8:21 PM
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Alan Swank wrote:expand_more
Andrew - in this day and age your subject line scared the hell out of me. Sad but true.
+1. I had the same dang thought! Sad world we live in.
OhioCatFan
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Posted: 1/18/2017 9:31 PM
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Mark Lembright '85 wrote:expand_more
Andrew - in this day and age your subject line scared the hell out of me. Sad but true.
+1. I had the same dang thought! Sad world we live in.
+2

I thought someone in Athens -- maybe a basketball player -- had been shot. My reaction when I opened the thread was . . . whew!, it's just about team shooting percentage!
Andrew Ruck
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Posted: 1/19/2017 8:54 AM
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Hey you gotta use that attention-grabbing clickbait headline these days. I will adjust the original subject to prevent any heart attacks.
OUVan
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Posted: 1/19/2017 9:08 AM
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Andrew Ruck wrote:expand_more
Free throws have been painfully obvious, going from .759 to .656...Ouch.
This is the area that really gets me. We had 7 players last year with FT% higher than 70%. This year we have 2.

Big drops:

Simmons 78% to 66%
Campbell 71% to 65%
Taylor 74% to 46%
Block 83% to 58%

Really a head-scratcher.
GoCats105
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Posted: 1/19/2017 9:27 AM
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OUVan wrote:expand_more
Free throws have been painfully obvious, going from .759 to .656...Ouch.
This is the area that really gets me. We had 7 players last year with FT% higher than 70%. This year we have 2.

Big drops:

Simmons 78% to 66%
Campbell 71% to 65%
Taylor 74% to 46%
Block 83% to 58%

Really a head-scratcher.
OUCountry and I were talking about this very phenomena at the EMU game. Once one guy started missing, they all started missing. It's like a disease that's spread. Maybe these guys are so tuned up and in sync that they just get in their head too much "don't miss, don't miss" but that's all they can think about is missing.
yamaha45701
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Posted: 1/19/2017 9:34 AM
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Sadly, there was a shooting in Athens last night on the west side. The Athens News web site has the details.
Jeff McKinney
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Posted: 1/19/2017 9:37 AM
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I have posted on here in past seasons about the possible correlation between a teams FT % and opponents FT %. Logically, it makes no sense. Anecdotally, it seems to me that often if one team isn't shooting well from the line, opponents often don't also.

Would like to see a study of the possible correlation. If there is any correlation, that would back up the idea of FT shooting somehow being "contagious" psychologically.
Alan Swank
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Posted: 1/19/2017 9:48 AM
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Jeff McKinney wrote:expand_more
I have posted on here in past seasons about the possible correlation between a teams FT % and opponents FT %. Logically, it makes no sense. Anecdotally, it seems to me that often if one team isn't shooting well from the line, opponents often don't also.

Would like to see a study of the possible correlation. If there is any correlation, that would back up the idea of FT shooting somehow being "contagious" psychologically.
I've seen it in volleyball too with missed serves. It sometimes gets to the point of the absurd. Free throw shooting and making puts are 90% mental.
Bobcat1998
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Posted: 1/19/2017 10:14 AM
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Alan Swank wrote:expand_more
I have posted on here in past seasons about the possible correlation between a teams FT % and opponents FT %. Logically, it makes no sense. Anecdotally, it seems to me that often if one team isn't shooting well from the line, opponents often don't also.

Would like to see a study of the possible correlation. If there is any correlation, that would back up the idea of FT shooting somehow being "contagious" psychologically.
I've seen it in volleyball too with missed serves. It sometimes gets to the point of the absurd. Free throw shooting and making puts are 90% mental.
Block's regression at the line is the troublesome one. He was excellent last year and this year has really fallen off. Mental? He missed two key free throws early in the contest at Akron after a nice move to the hoop. He used to be automatic for at least 1 out of 2. Doug Taylor just seems to be mentally out of it at the line as well but he's also getting more attempts...or at least it feels that way.
OhioCatFan
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Posted: 1/19/2017 11:29 AM
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Jeff McKinney wrote:expand_more
I have posted on here in past seasons about the possible correlation between a teams FT % and opponents FT %. Logically, it makes no sense. Anecdotally, it seems to me that often if one team isn't shooting well from the line, opponents often don't also.

Would like to see a study of the possible correlation. If there is any correlation, that would back up the idea of FT shooting somehow being "contagious" psychologically.
Though this might not be an exact analogy, I've noticed many times during warmups before pick-up basketball games, that if one guy misses a shot, the next three or four guys also miss. Then if a guy makes a shot, the guys that shoot just seconds after him all make their shots too. This phenomenon while not a perfect correlation, seems to manifest itself more often than not in a manner that appears more than a random variation around a mean. That is, it appears to me to be a statistically significant difference, though I've never actually measured it with any real gathering of statistics. Hence, what I just said is really seat-of-the-pants anecdotal.
OU_Country
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Posted: 1/19/2017 12:16 PM
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GoCats105 wrote:expand_more
Free throws have been painfully obvious, going from .759 to .656...Ouch.
This is the area that really gets me. We had 7 players last year with FT% higher than 70%. This year we have 2.

Big drops:

Simmons 78% to 66%
Campbell 71% to 65%
Taylor 74% to 46%
Block 83% to 58%

Really a head-scratcher.
OUCountry and I were talking about this very phenomena at the EMU game. Once one guy started missing, they all started missing. It's like a disease that's spread. Maybe these guys are so tuned up and in sync that they just get in their head too much "don't miss, don't miss" but that's all they can think about is missing.

I didn't realize it was THIS bad. I figured with what I've seen from Jaaron and Gavin in the last 3 games that their numbers weren't good. They simply are not 50-60% free throw shooters, and if they shoot at last year's clip, OUr team has wins in at least 2 of 3 vs Iona, WKU, and EMU, where free throw misses were crucial. It's really hard to understand, and I keep thinking they'll eventually snap out of it.

I tweeted with Russ the other night looking for his thoughts on this. He said (paraphrasing) "I'm not a doctor".

It's just so strange, at least for Tony, Gavin, Jaaron.
Brian Smith (No, not that one)
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Posted: 1/19/2017 12:19 PM
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Andrew Ruck wrote:expand_more
Hey you gotta use that attention-grabbing clickbait headline these days.
I'd like to offer you a job in the newspaper industry. We pay in fortune cookies and free Culligan water. And everyone will hate you. I hope you take up my offer.
GraffZ06
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Posted: 1/19/2017 12:20 PM
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Visualization is a powerful tool.

It's not that somebody else made or missed that affects us - it's that our brain saw it happen, and that is the visual image in our head when we then shoot.

Always always always want to visualize the shot going in, in your head, before you take the shot (if possible). You see guys who practice this and are consistent with it, and the general view from outside is they shoot with "confidence".

It's all mental, but it's specifically the visualization piece of it. It's real.
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