Working through some of the seeding scenarios. Thought I'd post them here. I'll edit / update as I go. Using the seeding simulator when possible, but it doesnt break 4 ways ties. (Tie breaking procedures ==> http://www.mac-sports.com/sports/2015/3/4/MBB_0304150307.... )

I came up with 16 scenarios (labeled A thru P below). To try to keep this readable, heres the summary. I put the details in my response below. I very easily could have missed some, or mis-calculated something...

If Ohio beats Miami, heres who many times theyd get each seed:

#2 Seed - 9 times
#3 Seed - 7 times


If Miami beats Ohio, heres who many times theyd get each seed:

#2 Seed - 1 time
#3 Seed - 3 times
#4 Seed - 5 times
#5 Seed - 4 times
#6 Seed - 3 times

Edit: Saw Arkley tweet we finish no worse than 3 with a win, so I probably did miscalculate a few.

Edit #2: Got a response via twitter form JGuy about the scenario I had Ohio getting the 5 seed. Ohio would get the #3 in that scenario.

Egad

It takes Price Waterhouse....

Details of scenarios. assuming Ohio wins (with what happens if Ohio loses in each scenario after tie breakers).

A) UB over BG, BSU over NIU, WMU over CMU, Kent Over Akron = Ohio #2, UB #3, WMU #4, Kent #5, BSU #6
- Ohio, WMU, Kent, UB, BSU all finish 11-7
- Record vs tied teams. Ohio (4-3), UB (4-3), WMU (3-3), Kent (3-3), BSU (2-4). BSU gets #6 seed.
- Ohio UB Still tied, record vs. #1 Akron Ohio (1-1), UB (0-2). Ohio gets #2, UB #3
- WMU & Kent still tied. Head to head. WMU (1-0), Kent (0-1). WMU gets #4, Kent #5

Ohio Loss = #6 seed per seeding simulator

B) BG over UB, BSU over NIU, WMU over CMU, Kent Over Akron = Ohio #2, WMU #3, Kent #4, BSU #5
- Ohio, WMU, Kent, BSU all finish 11-7
- Record vs tied teams. Ohio (3-2), WMU (3-2), Kent (2-2), BSU (1-3). Kent gets #4, BSU #5
- Ohio & WMU Still tied, record vs. #1 Akron Ohio (1-1), WMU (0-2). Ohio gets #2, WMU #3

Ohio Loss = #5 seed per seeding simulator

C) UB over BG, BSU over NIU, CMU over WMU, Kent Over Akron = Kent #2, Ohio #3, UB #4, BSU #5
- Ohio, Kent, UB, BSU all finish 11-7
- Record vs tied teams. Ohio (3-2), Kent (3-2), UB (3-3), BSU (1-3). UB gets #4, BSU #5
- Ohio & Kent Still tied, record vs. #1 Akron. Ohio (1-1), Kent (2-0). Kent gets #2, Ohio #3

Ohio Loss = #5 seed per seeding simulator

D) UB over BG, BSU over NIU, WMU over CMU, Akron Over Kent = Ohio #2, UB #3, WMU #4, BSU #5
- Ohio, WMU, UB, BSU all finish 11-7
- Record vs tied teams. Ohio (3-2), UB (3-2), WMU (2-3), BSU (2-3).
- Ohio UB Still tied, record vs. #1 Akron Ohio (1-1), UB (0-2). Ohio gets #2, UB #3
- Head to head. WMU (1-1) BSU (1-1). Still tied. Record vs teams top to bottom #1 Akron - still tied, #2 Ohio - WMU (1-1) BSU (0-1), WMU Gets #4, BSU #5

Ohio Loss = #6 seed per seeding simulator

E) BG over UB, NIU over BSU, WMU over CMU, Kent Over Akron = WMU #2, Ohio #3, Kent #4
- Ohio, WMU, Kent all finish 11-7
- Record vs tied teams. WMU (2-1), Ohio (2-2), Kent (1-2). WMU gets #2, Ohio gets #3, Kent #4

Ohio Loss = #4 seed per seeding simulator

F) UB over BG, NIU over BSU, WMU over CMU, Kent Over Akron = UB #2, Ohio #3, WMU #4, Kent #5
- Ohio, Kent, UB, WMU all finish 11-7
- Record vs tied teams. UB (3-2), Ohio (3-3), WMU (2-2), Kent (2-3). UB gets the #2, Kent gets #5
- Ohio & WMU Still tied. Head to head. WMU (1-1) Ohio (1-1). Ohio 1-1 vs Akron, WMU 0-1. Ohio Gets #3, WMU #4

Ohio Loss = #5 seed per seeding simulator

G) BG over UB, BSU over NIU, CMU over WMU, Kent Over Akron = Kent #2, Ohio #3, BSU #4
- Ohio, Kent, BSU all finish 11-7
- Record vs tied teams. Ohio (2-1), Kent (2-1), BSU (0-2). BSU gets #4
- Ohio & Kent Still tied, record vs. #1 Akron. Ohio (1-1), Kent (2-0). Kent gets #2, Ohio #3

Ohio Loss = #4 seed per seeding simulator


H) BG over UB, BSU over NIU, WMU over CMU, Akron Over Kent = Ohio #2, WMU #3, BSU #4
- Ohio, WMU, BSU all finish 11-7
- Record vs tied teams. Ohio (2-1), WMU (2-2), BSU (1-2). Ohio gets #2, WMU #3, BSU #4

Ohio Loss = #4 seed per seeding simulator


I) UB over BG, NIU over BSU, CMU over WMU, Kent Over Akron = Kent #2, Ohio #3, UB #4
- Ohio, Kent, UB all finish 11-7
- Record vs tied teams. Ohio (2-2), Kent (2-2), UB (2-2).
- Still tied. Record vs teams top to bottom #1 Akron - Kent (2-0), Ohio (1-1), UB (0-2). Kent gets #2, Ohio #3, UB #4

Ohio Loss = #4 seed per seeding simulator


J) UB over BG, NIU over BSU, WMU over CMU, Akron Over Kent = UB #2, Ohio #3, WMU #4
- Ohio, WMU, UB all finish 11-7
- Record vs tied teams. UB (2-1), Ohio (2-2), WMU (1-2). UB gets #2, Ohio #3, WMU #4

Ohio Loss = #4 seed per seeding simulator


K) UB over BG, BSU over NIU, CMU over WMU, Akron Over Kent = Ohio #2, UB #3, BSU #4
- Ohio, BSU, UB all finish 11-7
- Record vs tied teams. Ohio (2-1), UB (2-2), BSU (1-2). Ohio gets #2, UB #3, BSU #4

Ohio Loss = #5 seed per seeding simulator

L) BG over UB, NIU over BSU, CMU over WMU, Kent Over Akron = Kent #2, Ohio #3
- Ohio, Kent finish 11-7
- Head to head. Ohio (1-1) Kent (1-1). Still tied. Record vs teams top to bottom #1 Akron - Kent (2-0), Ohio (1-1). Kent Gets #2, Ohio #3

Ohio Loss = 4 way tie at 10-8 with UB, WMU, BSU = 3 (beat UB vs. Akron)

M) BG over UB, BSU over NIU, CMU over WMU, Akron Over Kent = Ohio #2, BSU #3
- Ohio, BSU finish 11-7
- Head to head. Ohio (1-0) BSU (0-1). Ohio Gets #2, BSU #3

Ohio Loss = 4 way tie at 10-8 with UB, WMU, Kent = 6

N) BG over UB, NIU over BSU, WMU over CMU, Akron Over Kent = Ohio #2, WMU #3
- Ohio, WMU finish 11-7
- Head to head. Ohio (1-1) WMU (1-1). Still tied. Record vs teams top to bottom #1 Akron - Ohio (1-1) WMU (0-2). Ohio Gets #2, WMU #3

Ohio Loss = 4 way tie at 10-8 with UB, BSU, Kent = #3 (beat kent vs WMU)

O) UB over BG, NIU over BSU, CMU over WMU, Akron Over Kent = Ohio #2, UB #3
- Ohio, UB finish 11-7
- Head to head. Ohio (1-1) UB (1-1). Still tied. Record vs teams top to bottom #1 Akron - Ohio (1-1) UB (0-2). Ohio Gets #2, UB #3

Ohio Loss = 4 way tie at 10-8 with WMU, Kent, BSU = 3 (combined record vs tied teams)

P) BG over UB, NIU over BSU, CMU over WMU, Akron Over Kent = Ohio #2
- Ohio finishes alone at 11-7 gets #2 seed

Ohio Loss = 5 way tie at 10-8 with UB, WMU, Kent, BSU = Ohio at #2

Beat Miami, get the bye. Simple, end of story.

Unless "F" occurs. The game that really matters, other than ours, is Kent at Akron. If Akron wins and we win the worst we can do is #3.

That looks much more promising. Win and we are in.

Thanks Eagle. I'd like to see ESPN show a graphic on these scenarios.

I had someone show me the site below. They have a table with the % chance for each seed, as well as which seeds each team controls their own destiny to get. According to this, Ohio has an 84% chance of getting a bye.

http://playoffstatus.com/macbasketball/macstandings.html

I believe the 84% takes into account scenarios where Ohio wins and loses. With a win they're 2 or 3, just don't control their own destiny for either one.

Toledo ha stocked up #7. So Ohio will get the winner of them and #10 BG


In looking at that second scenario, with BSU and WMU tied for the west lead, maybe the division record would be considered before the top to bottom which might be BSU


Edit: Looks like BG will be the 10 seed.

i see

akron win has OHIO as the #3 playing the winner of kent st bowling green

kent st win has OHIO #4 playing the winner of buffalo miami

..it would be cool if the simulator was updated

No Ohio is locked into #2 and Buff is #3. If kent wins they are #5

Yes, Ohio is the 2, and will play the winner of 10/7. 3 is on their half, who will play the winner of 11/6.

Other side of the bracket is 1 vs. 8/9 and 4 vs. 5/12