Boals is 0-7 at OU in the regular season vs. UT. Yes Ohio is better when healthy. A team with lots of length but lack of bigs is happy the 6'8 dudes are out. Toledo is metrically awful because they are a bottom 40 team in the nation in defense. The fact that 26 points of scoring isn't there will help the Rockets.
Toledo has laid some eggs this season. Oakland and Kent 20+ losses at home. The Rockets also figured out Marshall and EMU which Ohio did not.
There is no team with more variance in the league than Toledo. The good version of was down 5 with 10 minutes against Purdue and lead Akeon by 12 at half. The bad version appears about half of the time. I would read Toledo as maybe a 130 Kenpom or maybe a 270 Kenpom. Rarely anything in-between. If it is it's one half of each. Inconsistoledo.
Appreciate your analysis. Toledo has the ability to be a threat in the MAC but like you said, you never know which version you're going to see.
With Ohio, I think it's clear they underwhelmed early in the season. Now, factoring their lack of height with Clayton/Hadaway out, I think most people are counting the Bobcats out moving forward.
What holds me back with that is that I think OU has a lot of young talent and enough guys that have the ability to take on bigger roles (Mitchell, Brown, James) given the opportunity.
Ohio will definitely struggle to rebound and look sloppy at times but I still think this is a 10+ win team in the MAC. The next two games will tell us if they can compete with the top teams in the conference or are a middle of the pack squad.