Might as well get this started.

👀

With three games left... things are getting quite interesting. #RoadToCLE #MACtion pic.twitter.com/DqJUaXMXEX

— #MACtion (@MACSports) February 21, 2018

 

With just one week to go in the regular season... 👀

This is going to be fun. #MACtion pic.twitter.com/LZbDsBA1eQ

— #MACtion (@MACSports) February 25, 2018

So we have to win two and BG has to lose to UB. Good news is I think each of Central, Northern, and Akron will lose out.

Gonna have to find that Kron Presser to see what JG says about the team losing a lead. He was pretty brutal in those types of losses picking who was going to be the media reps and making them endure the presser and answer for the team.

Tie-Breakers Here: http://getsomemaction.com/sports/2015/3/4/MBB_0304150307....

For the sake of this post, I'm going to be an optimist here and hold out hope that the Bobcats can put together a run next week.

Just musing on where the Bobcats might fall:

Possible #8 Teams:
BG: 7-9
Ohio: 5-11
Akron: 5-11
Central: 5-11
Northern: 5-11

Bobcats Schedule: BG, @Miami
BG Schedule: @Ohio, BUFFALO
Akron Schedule: @Buffalo, KENT
Central: BALL, WESTERN
Northern: TOLEDO, BALL

Scenario A: Ohio wins out, BG loses out, Ohio is tied with BG and no other schools at 7-11 for #8:
H2H: Draw
Division Record: Ohio takes the #8 with 5 division wins to BG's 4

Scenario B: Ohio wins out, BG loses out, Ohio is tied with BG and additional team(s) at 7-11 for #8:
Record Amongst Tied Teams: Depends who the other team(s) might be. Akron is bad news for Ohio with a 2-0 record against BG. Central is bad news with two wins over Ohio and a win over BG. Northern is less of a problem with a loss to Ohio and 1-1 against BG..... I'll let someone else go into 4-way and 5-way tiebreakers, as either of those are possible at this point.

All of that said, if Ohio is #8, they should be a tight favorite no matter who #9 is (would likely be BG, or, could be one of Akron/Central/Northern). With a win, the Bobcats would then need to face Buffalo in Cleveland.

I would argue that #12 isn't necessarily a bad place to be. The Bobcats have had a difficult year, no doubt about it. But does going on the road @Miami/@Kent/@Western/@Eastern really scare anyone this year? Cats are an underdog in any of those games, but a tight underdog. Then go into Cleveland and face another one of the aforementioned teams on a neutral floor before running into Buffalo/hoping for Buffalo to be upset.

I'm not necessarily rooting for the Bobcats to finish #12. And I realize that if it does indeed happen, it means the Bobcats could lose their last two games and will feel beaten up with three losses in a row before the tournament (though finishing 1-1 and #12 is very much a possibility). What I am saying is, the #12 is arguably an easier path to winning the tournament than #7-11.

I'm not giving up hope for some March magic. And before prognosticating any scenario, the primary hope for this injury plagued team should be to go into next week with the best health outlook possible and see what happens from there.

It goes a little deeper than that. The Division Record tie breaker is only used for determining a division champ. In this scenario it would be skipped and go to the winning percentage from 1 seed down. Both would be win-less against UB, Toledo and BSU and undefeated against EMU. It would come down to who finishes higher in the standings, Miami (Ohio 2-0 vs. BG 1-1) or WMU (BG 1-0 vs Ohio 0-1).

Unfortunately for Ohio, Miami is already a game back of WMU, and assuming a loss to Ohio for this to be relevant, the best they could do is tie with WMU. WMU is 2-0 against Miami so it would take some multi-team tie breaker for them to finish below Miami under this scenario.

Ah yes, I stand corrected on tie breakers, as it looks very difficult for the #8 given division record is not part of the equation.

As for the Toledo side of the bracket, I don't like the idea of potentially having to play Buffalo, Toledo AND Ball State. Playing the #2 or #3 side could bring this into play. I feel like there is steady drop from Toledo to Ball St, but another steady drop from Ball St to whoever is #4, and virtually no drop from #4 to #7, maybe even down to #10/#11. Sneaking in and playing the #4 in the quarterfinals means only playing two of the top three schools at max.

Again, most important thing is to be as healthy as possible given our circumstances, then see what happens.

They would lose the tie breaker to BG based on a winning percentage from top down, specifically at WMU. (see a few posts above for details)

So it's possible Ohio could play Miami in Oxford twice in a row? Brutal.

I know, can you imagine spending an entire 4 day weekend in Oxford? Yuck.

The Central western Game will be at 11 AM tomorrow.




http://getsomemaction.com/news/2018/3/2/general-mac-annou...

Might be a staffing issue for the facility hosting the game on short notice. Much easier to manage a crowd of a few hundred people than a few thousand.

Good point - you might be correct.